AI Analyzes the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

November 14, 2024 | Artificial Intelligence/AI

AI Analyzes the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election

STORM is a new LLM developed at Stanford University. I wrote about it a few weeks ago and included a sample of its output in my article. STORM is an experimental LLM. Its creators built it using a multi-stage process, with the goal of writing a Wikipedia-like research article after searching the Internet for appropriate sources.

After spending the last day and a half watching network reporters discuss the reasons why Donald Trump beat Kamala Harris (or why Kamala Harris lost), I opted to use STORM to provide me with a cogent explanation for the election’s outcome, given that less than 48 hours had lapsed since the announcement that Trump was the likely winner.

STORM’s creators recommend that you provide a prompt in the form of the title for your Wikipedia-like article. I input “2024 U.S. Presidential Election Upset.”

In approximately three minutes, the AI-generated the article, which is appended below.

Stanford STORM Summary

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Upset refers to a significant and unexpected shift in the political landscape of the United States during the election cycle held on November 5, 2024. This election followed a tumultuous period marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, economic uncertainty, and social unrest, which galvanized widespread political engagement among voters seeking to influence the nation’s future. With a diverse pool of candidates from both major parties, the election highlighted critical issues such as economic challenges, youth voter engagement, and political polarization that shaped public sentiment and electoral outcomes.[1][2]

Notably, the election was characterized by controversies surrounding voter intimidation and disinformation tactics, which drew responses from organizations like the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and federal authorities.[3][4] Additionally, the atmosphere on Election Day was further complicated by severe weather conditions, particularly in battleground states, affecting voter turnout and perceptions of the electoral process.[4] As analysts scrutinized the results, a narrative emerged indicating a decline in momentum for the progressive movement, prompting introspection within the Democratic Party about its strategies and future direction in light of internal divisions and external pressures.[5] The 2024 election also witnessed a surge in young voter registration, driven by significant economic concerns such as inflation and housing affordability, which resonated with younger demographics.[6][7]

 However, a notable divide in candidate preferences among youth—marked by stronger support for Democratic candidates among minority groups—underscored the importance of targeted outreach efforts to engage all segments of the electorate effectively.[8] The aftermath of the election has thus prompted discussions on electoral integrity and the influence of misinformation, as well as potential legislative reforms addressing economic issues and enhancing voter protections.[9][10][11] In summary, the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election Upset not only reshaped the political landscape but also reflected deeper societal tensions and the evolving dynamics of voter engagement, revealing both challenges and opportunities for the future of American democracy.[5][8][12]

Election Background

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election is set against a backdrop of significant political engagement and heightened public urgency. Following a tumultuous few years characterized by the COVID-19 pandemic, social unrest, and economic challenges, many Americans are eager to express their opinions and influence the direction of the country.[1]

This election cycle features a diverse array of candidates, including seasoned politicians and fresh faces, each vying to shape the future of American governance.[2] The political landscape has evolved dramatically over recent years, reflecting shifts in the demographic makeup of both major parties. The Republican Party, under the leadership of Donald Trump, has transformed from a traditionally conservative coalition into a populist movement that resonates with blue-collar and low-income voters. Conversely, the Democratic Party continues to draw support from young voters and people of color, while increasingly appealing to wealthier, college-educated individuals.[2]

These evolving dynamics suggest that the outcome of the election will hinge on the ability of candidates to connect with a broad range of voters and address pressing national issues. Moreover, the election environment is fraught with challenges related to disinformation and political violence. Experts warn that the proliferation of falsehoods and conspiracy theories, particularly in an age of rising authoritarianism and distrust, poses an unprecedented threat to democracy.[3] As the election date approaches, the potential for voter intimidation and disinformation tactics may significantly impact public trust and the electoral process itself.[1]

The Upset

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election was marked by unexpected developments and significant challenges for candidates. As the campaign progressed, internal polls indicated that a considerable portion of the electorate felt the country was on the wrong track, complicating the narratives presented by the candidates.[13] The Democratic ticket aimed for change, yet moments of hesitation from key figures, such as soft-pedaling critical issues during pivotal debates, raised concerns about the effectiveness of their message in the face of voter discontent.[13] Election Day brought with it various external factors that influenced voter turnout and perception.

Reports emerged of efforts to intimidate voters, prompting a response from the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and federal authorities. Judge Terrence Berg issued an emergency order to prevent harassment at polling locations, underscoring the tense atmosphere surrounding the election.[4] Meanwhile, severe weather conditions, including heavy rainfall and storms, particularly in battleground states like Wisconsin, posed additional hurdles for voters attempting to cast their ballots.[4] Battleground states, often deemed crucial for both parties, received heightened attention from campaigns.

These included traditional Democratic strongholds like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, which had shifted politically in recent years due to demographic changes and strategic campaigning by former President Donald Trump targeting specific voter groups.[4] As results began to come in, election officials reported a relatively smooth counting process, despite earlier disruptions caused by threats that were later attributed to foreign interference.[4] As analysts examined the election’s outcomes, it became evident that the political landscape had undergone a notable shift.

The narrative that the progressive movement was losing momentum became increasingly pronounced, with commentators suggesting that various social issues previously viewed as progressive gains were now being defended rather than advanced.[5] This culminated in a broader discussion about the ideological trajectory of the American political landscape, prompting questions about the sustainability of progressive ambitions following years of significant policy reform.[5] Amid these complexities, the election’s results would eventually lead to introspection within the Democratic Party about its future direction and the strategies employed during the campaign, particularly in light of the mounting challenges presented by both external circumstances and internal dynamics.[5]

ai image of thunderstorms and lightning striking a computer farm
AI image created with Canva

Stanford STORM’s Election Analysis

Economic Concerns and Voter Sentiment

The economy is a pivotal factor influencing voter sentiment in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Historically, economic issues rank among the top concerns for voters when assessing the performance of elected officials and deciding on their voting preferences [6]. Current data indicate that a significant portion of the electorate is expressing heightened concerns over economic issues, particularly inflation and housing affordability, which are leading factors for young voters aged 18-34. This demographic reports a strong likelihood of participation in the election, with their engagement influenced by these economic concerns as well as progressive social issues such as climate change and gun control [8].

Young Voter Engagement

The 2024 election cycle has seen an increase in voter registration among young individuals, particularly 18- and 19-year-olds, surpassing the numbers recorded during the 2020 election [7]. States like Michigan have implemented policy changes, such as youth pre-registration and automatic voter registration, contributing to this uptick [7]. This surge in youth registration could significantly impact election outcomes, especially as young voters demonstrate a clear preference for Democratic candidates. However, the presence of a substantial number of undecided voters within this group underscores the necessity for targeted outreach strategies that address the diverse needs and perspectives of young voters [8].

Party Affiliation Trends

An analysis of party affiliation trends reveals a notable Democratic advantage among U.S. adults, indicating potential voting patterns that may favor Democratic candidates in the upcoming election [6]. This advantage is significant in shaping campaign strategies and resource allocation as candidates prepare for competitive matchups. As the political landscape continues to evolve, understanding these trends will be crucial for both parties to effectively mobilize their bases and sway undecided voters.

Impact of Advertising and Local Engagement

Research suggests that while television advertising does have an impact on voter attitudes, its effectiveness varies significantly between presidential and down-ballot races. Advertising tends to be more persuasive in close races where one party can gain a substantial advantage [14]. This highlights the importance of investing in local voter engagement and grassroots organizing efforts, which have shown to drive voter turnout more effectively than traditional advertising methods [15]. Local engagement strategies, especially those that reach marginalized communities, may provide a crucial edge in mobilizing voters who are often overlooked by mainstream campaigns [15].

Demographic Factors in Candidate Preferences

Demographic analysis indicates a divide in candidate preferences among young voters, with support for Democratic candidates being notably stronger among minority groups, particularly Black youth. In contrast, support for Republican candidates is more pronounced among white youth, especially in rural areas and among those without college experience [8]. This demographic divide emphasizes the need for targeted outreach efforts that can effectively engage all segments of the youth electorate and ensure that diverse voices are represented in the political discourse leading up to the election.

Aftermath of the 2024 Presidential Election

The aftermath of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has been marked by significant disruptions, heightened tensions, and shifts in the political landscape. Election officials have prepared for various forms of incidents, emphasizing the importance of incident response preparation and contingency plans, as disruptions are a common occurrence during elections [9].

Market Reactions to the 2024 Presidential Election

Historically, the stock market tends to rise after a presidential election, although investors often face short-term volatility immediately following Election Day. Data from previous elections since 1980 indicates that major stock benchmarks typically experience declines in the sessions and weeks following voting but often recover their losses within a month [16].

Political Dynamics

The 2024 election cycle featured unexpected developments, including a dramatic shift in candidate dynamics with Vice President Kamala Harris emerging as a significant contender after President Biden’s withdrawal. This change energized the Democratic base, creating a renewed sense of enthusiasm among voters [16]. However, there has been a notable concern regarding voter sentiments about change, with polls indicating a split opinion among Americans on which candidate embodies that concept most effectively [17].

Election Integrity and Conspiracy Theories

As with previous elections, the aftermath has been accompanied by the spread of conspiracy theories regarding election integrity. Some narratives falsely claimed that natural disasters, such as Hurricane Helene, were manipulated for political ends, while others suggested government intervention was aimed at voter suppression [17]. These unfounded claims reflect broader challenges surrounding misinformation and the perceived threats to the electoral process [10].

Youth Engagement

Amidst the controversies, young voter engagement has shown a remarkable rise, with approximately 57% of individuals aged 18-34 expressing a strong likelihood to vote. Economic issues, particularly inflation and housing affordability, have emerged as primary concerns influencing their choices, along with social issues like climate change and gun control [8]. This demographic’s participation is critical, especially in battleground states where their votes can significantly impact outcomes.

Legislative and Policy Implications

In the wake of the election, discussions around legislative changes have intensified, particularly concerning price gouging during emergencies and addressing the root causes of migration at the U.S. southern border [11][12]. The focus has also shifted towards a collaborative approach among various stakeholders to tackle misinformation and enhance the integrity of the electoral process, which has become a pressing issue as the political climate evolves [18].

References

 

When I reviewed the references comprising the article’s basis, I noticed that only two were dated after November 5, 2024, the election date. Two sources were published when Joe Biden was still the presumed candidate, not Kamala Harris. I don’t know how frequently the STORM database is updated, but it’s clear that the AI selected pre-election sources to form the article’s basis.

If this article were an academic assignment, I wouldn’t grade it an “A” and probably not a “B” given the dates of most of the sources. However, the article did appear to cover the major issues that I have heard discussed post-election:

  • Trump’s populist rhetoric resonated with blue-collar and low-income voters.
  • The Democratic ticket did not distance itself enough from the Biden administration to effectively respond to the electorate’s calls for change.
  • Battleground states received heightened attention from both campaigns.
  • Trump wasn’t on the ballot in the mid-terms in 2022, and when he is (2024), his supporters tend to show up.
  • Trump strategically targeted specific voter groups like young males of all races.
  • Economic issues were a pivotal factor influencing voter sentiment.
  • Vice President Harris’s gender and race were issues for some voters.
  • Support for Republican candidates was more pronounced among white youth, especially those in rural areas and those without college degrees.
  • Explaining the root causes of illegal immigration at the Southern border was unanswered by the Democratic candidate.

When I read the 18 sources cited by STORM, I thought the November 5, 2024, NPR article by Domenico Montanaro foreshadowed the election results more accurately than the others. None of the sources mentioned the Harris campaign claim that Trump was a threat to democracy or that only she could restore women’s reproductive rights. One of the sources listed was a blog; the content was good, I wasn’t sure how a professor would rate the source.

robots standing around a voting booth for presidential election voting
AI image created by Canva

ChatGPT Prompt and Output

Much of the wording in the STORM article indicated that the election’s outcome was not yet known. Because of that, I decided to use ChatGPT similarly. The prompt that I issued to ChatGPT was:

In a 2,000-word article, please explain why Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 U.S. Presidential election to former President Donald Trump.

The response that I received from ChatGPT in less than 30 seconds is appended below.

Vice President Kamala Harris’s defeat in the 2024 U.S. Presidential election to former President Donald Trump can be attributed to a confluence of factors that influenced voter sentiment and electoral dynamics.

Economic Concerns and Inflation

A predominant issue was the state of the economy, particularly inflation. Voters expressed significant anxiety over rising prices and economic instability, which overshadowed other campaign themes. Harris’s campaign struggled to effectively address these economic concerns, leading to a perception that she was disconnected from the financial realities facing many Americans.

The Wall Street Journal (November 6, 2024)

Immigration and Border Security

Immigration emerged as a pivotal topic during the campaign. Trump’s firm stance on border security and immigration resonated with voters concerned about national security and economic competition. In contrast, Harris’s policies were perceived as more lenient, which may have alienated voters prioritizing stricter immigration controls.

Vox (November 6, 2024)

Campaign Strategy and Messaging

Harris’s campaign strategy faced criticism for its focus and execution. Some analysts argue that the campaign misread the electorate’s priorities, emphasizing issues like abortion rights and democratic norms over pressing economic and security concerns. This misalignment may have contributed to a disconnect with key voter demographics.

The Wall Street Journal (November 6, 2024 – same source as #1)

Voter Demographics and Turnout

The election saw shifts in voter demographics and turnout patterns. Trump made gains among Latino voters and performed strongly in rural areas, while Harris failed to mobilize urban and suburban voters to the same extent as previous Democratic candidates. This shift in voter support was crucial in swing states that determined the election outcome.

The Times (November 6, 2024)

Impact of Race and Gender

Harris’s historic candidacy as the first woman of color to run for president faced unique challenges. Analysts suggest that racial and gender biases may have influenced voter perceptions and decisions, contributing to her defeat. The intersectionality of her identity presented obstacles that previous candidates did not encounter.

Al Jazeera (November 6, 2024)

Internal Party Dynamics

Within the Democratic Party, there was introspection regarding Harris’s candidacy and campaign approach. Some party members questioned the timing of President Biden’s withdrawal from the race and the subsequent consolidation around Harris, suggesting that these internal dynamics may have impacted the campaign’s effectiveness.

The Wall Street Journal (November 6, 2024)

External Factors and Misinformation

The campaign was also affected by external factors, including misinformation and disinformation campaigns that targeted Harris and her policies. These efforts may have swayed public opinion and contributed to a narrative that undermined her candidacy.

Reuters (November 6, 2024)

In summary, Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss in the 2024 Presidential election was the result of a complex interplay of economic concerns, campaign strategy missteps, demographic shifts, societal biases, internal party issues, and external influences. Understanding these factors provides insight into the challenges faced during her historic campaign.

As users of ChatGPT know, I could have asked for another response to see if the AI could write a 2,000-word response (the article appended above is approximately 500 words). However, I chose to keep it since I didn’t try to generate another article from the STORM prompt.

Comparing the two responses, the ChatGPT response used post-election sources to compile its article while 16 of the 18 STORM sources were prior to November 5. If the ChatGPT LLM had followed my request and written a 2,000-word response, it could have been more specific and better given that many of its sources mentioned the major themes that I have heard post-election.

Additional LLMs I Utilized

Two days later, I decided to use additional LLMs to see how close their responses were to STORM and ChatGPT. My third choice for this exercise was Claude 3.5. The prompt I used was the same as the one I used for ChatGPT.

In a 2,000-word article, please explain why Vice President Kamala Harris lost the 2024 U.S. Presidential election to former President Donald Trump.

The response of Claude is appended below. The currency of the AI dataset matters. At least Claude didn’t try to fake it but explained why it could not answer the prompt.

I need to point out that I cannot write an article about the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as that election has not yet taken place – it is scheduled for November 5, 2024. Since my knowledge cutoff is from April 2024, I also cannot make predictions or assessments about how the election will turn out.

What I can do is discuss the current state of the 2024 presidential race based on information available as of April 2024, or I can discuss past U.S. presidential elections and their outcomes. Would you prefer either of those topics instead?

Perplexity Pro’s Analysis

My fourth choice for an LLM was Perplexity Pro. I used the same prompt used with ChatGPT4o and Claude 3.5. Perplexity’s response is appended below.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election saw former President Donald Trump defeat Vice President Kamala Harris in a surprising turn of events that has left many political analysts searching for explanations. Several key factors contributed to Harris’s loss and Trump’s victory, ranging from economic concerns to campaign strategy. Let’s examine the major reasons behind this unexpected outcome.

Economic Factors

Lingering Inflation Concerns

One of the most significant factors in Harris’s defeat was the persistent issue of inflation that plagued the Biden administration. Despite some improvements in the economy, many voters still felt the pinch of higher prices for everyday goods and services.[1] The Trump campaign successfully capitalized on this discontent, painting Harris as a continuation of Biden’s economic policies that had led to increased costs for American families.

Working-Class Coalition

Trump’s campaign theory of building a multi-ethnic working-class coalition proved broadly correct. [1] He managed to increase his support among Latino and African American voters, especially men. Trump’s share of the Black male vote rose from 12% in 2020 to 20% in 2024, and he carried Hispanic men by a margin of 54% to 45%.[1] This shift in traditionally Democratic-leaning demographics played a crucial role in Trump’s victory.

Campaign Strategy and Execution

Harris’s Uphill Battle

From the outset, Harris faced significant challenges in her campaign. She inherited the low approval ratings of the Biden administration, particularly on key issues such as inflation and immigration.[1] The late decision by President Biden to abandon his re-election bid also worked against Harris, depriving her of the opportunity to refine her arguments through a primary fight and shortening the time she had to introduce herself to voters.[1]

Trump’s Tactical Choices

The Trump campaign made several critical tactical decisions that paid off on election day:

  1. They focused on intensifying Trump’s personal bond with his supporters rather than investing heavily in traditional get-out-the-vote organizing.[1]
  2. Trump improved his performance among young adults, increasing his share from 35% in 2020 to 42% in 2024, partly through targeted outreach on platforms like Joe Rogan’s podcast.[1]
  3. The campaign successfully united the Republican Party, with Trump receiving 94% of the Republican vote.[1]

Harris’s Centrist Approach

Harris adopted a moderate approach in her campaign, distancing herself from some of her previous progressive stances but avoiding direct confrontations with the left.[2] This strategy aimed to unify the Democratic coalition but may have failed to energize key segments of the party’s base.

Identity Politics and Voter Perception

Race and Gender Factors

Analysts have pointed out that Harris’s identity as a woman of color significantly influenced the election outcome.[3] The intersection of race and gender presented unique challenges for Harris, echoing some of the difficulties faced by Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Barack Obama in his campaigns.[3]

Backlash and Rhetoric

Trump’s campaign rhetoric, which included derogatory remarks about Harris, may have emboldened some voters to dismiss her candidacy.[3] The persistence of sexism and racism in American politics, exacerbated by Trump’s influence, created additional hurdles for Harris to overcome.[3]

Policy Positions and Voter Disillusionment

Israel-Gaza Conflict

Harris’s stance on the Israel-Gaza conflict alienated some progressive, Arab American, and Muslim voters.[3] The Democratic Party’s continued support for Israel in the face of humanitarian concerns in Gaza led to disillusionment among these key voter groups.[3]

Immigration and Social Issues

Trump and his allies spent significant resources on advertising that highlighted Harris’s support for providing taxpayer-funded gender transition-related medical care for detained immigrants and federal prisoners.[4] These ads, along with others focusing on immigration policy, appeared to resonate with voters concerned about border security and social issues.

Campaign Execution and Messaging

Compressed Timeline

Harris had just over 100 days to mount her campaign after Biden’s withdrawal, which limited her ability to develop a comprehensive strategy and connect with voters across the country.[4]

Messaging Challenges

The Harris campaign struggled to effectively communicate her priorities and make specific appeals to Black and Hispanic voter.[4] While they attempted to frame the election as a referendum on Trump, they may have underestimated the need to define Harris’s own vision for the country.

Data and Turnout Miscalculations

There were indications that the Harris campaign’s data team overestimated turnout in key counties, particularly in suburban areas.[4] This miscalculation may have led to misallocation of resources and flawed strategic decisions in the final weeks of the campaign.

Media Coverage and Public Perception

Defending the Status Quo

Harris found herself in the difficult position of defending the Biden administration’s record while trying to present herself as a fresh alternative. [2] This balancing act made it challenging for her to capitalize on the desire for change that typically benefits the challenger in presidential elections.

Trump’s Media Dominance

Despite his controversial past, Trump managed to dominate media coverage and set the narrative for much of the campaign. [2] His ability to generate headlines and drive the conversation often overshadowed Harris’s messaging efforts.

Voter Turnout and Demographics

Gender Gap Disappointment

Contrary to expectations, the anticipated surge in women voters supporting Harris did not materialize to the extent many had predicted. [5] The failure to generate enthusiasm among this key demographic proved costly for the Harris campaign.

Youth Vote Shift

While Harris maintained an advantage among young voters, Trump made significant inroads in this demographic, particularly among young men.[1] This shift helped erode what had been a reliable source of support for Democratic candidates in recent elections.

Conclusion

The 2024 U.S. Presidential election result was shaped by a complex interplay of factors, including economic concerns, campaign strategies, identity politics, and voter perceptions. Kamala Harris faced significant challenges in overcoming the headwinds of an unpopular incumbent administration while trying to forge her own path as a candidate. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s ability to expand his coalition, particularly among working-class voters of all ethnicities, proved decisive. The outcome of this election will likely prompt soul-searching within the Democratic Party and lead to broader discussions about the future direction of American politics. As the nation moves forward under a second Trump presidency, the lessons learned from this campaign will undoubtedly influence political strategies and public discourse for years to come.

References

[1] Why Donald Trump Won and Kamala Harris Lost: An early analysis of the results. William A. Galston. November 6, 2024. Brookings.

[2] Why Kamala Harris Lost. Andrew Prokop. November 6, 2024. Vox.

[3] What does Kamala Harris’s loss in the 2024 election mean for the US? Alice Speri. November 6, 2024. Aljazeera.

[4] Why Kamala Harris Lost the Election. Christopher Cadelago and Holly Otterbein. November 6, 2024. Politico.

[5] Democrats had bet on women showing up in force. They didn’t. Holly Honderich. November 8, 2024. BBC.

Final Thoughts

I continue to read articles mentioning the risk that AI tools like ChatGPT, STORM, Claude, Perplexity (and others) will lead to plagiarism and reduce learning. I don’t buy it. Neither of the four tools I used for this exercise deserves an “A.”

ChatGPT used more recent sources but didn’t create the 2,000-word article I requested. Claude informed me that the election had not been held yet. Perplexity probably adhered closest to the 2,000-word request but only used five sources. If I relied solely on the Perplexity article for a post, I would have read the articles thoroughly to determine if plagiarism occurred. I liked the Perplexity organization of its response, however. It generated the best response of the four LLMs.

As I have previously written, these AI tools will get better. Ignore them at your own risk. Stanford asks for feedback at the bottom of the prompt output every time I use it. ChatGPT doesn’t ask for feedback, but given their deployment of additional features and huge cash spend, I’m sure a daily goal is to enhance the accuracy of their responses. Their citations and the up-to-date sources from the internet are features that were not in the earliest releases.

Education is usually one of the best ways to obtain critical thinking skills that enable the facile utilization of AI tools like STORM, ChatGPT, Claude, and Perplexity. Teachers, instructors, and professors who understand the capabilities and weaknesses of the LLM tools will enhance their students’ learning and prepare them for a world where employers value employees capable of using AI as a tool.

Subjects of Interest

Artificial Intelligence/AI

EdTech

Higher Education

Independent Schools

K-12

Science

Student Persistence

Workforce

Work With Dr. Boston Dr. Boston's Articles