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The Reason for Social Distancing

The Reason for Social Distancing

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The events of this past week are mind-boggling to many of us. All of a sudden, colleges are asking their students to not return from spring break, cancelling face-to-face classes, cancelling athletic events, and completing the semester by asking faculty to teach out their classes online. The governor of the state of Maryland, Larry Hogan, closed all public schools for two weeks and has banned all public gatherings of more than 250 people. In addition, many companies have asked non-essential employees to work from home. Why, you may ask? It’s the math.

My nephew, Asher Rosinger, is an anthropology professor at Penn State University. He is also one of only two anthropologists to serve as an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta. He provided the following lesson on social media yesterday.

“When I teach my students about epidemics and the basic rate of reproduction (Ro), I discuss different diseases like measles, which has an Ro of ~15, meaning that one case on average leads to 15 new cases. So, with COVID-19, a disease with an Ro of ~2 to 2.5 doesn’t sound like much. But then I show my students a doubling exercise. If this doesn’t highlight how uncontained epidemics work, then nothing will. Take a penny and double it for the next 30 days:

Day 1: $.01

Day 2: $.02

Day 3: $.04

Day 4: $.08

Day 5: $.16

Day 6: $.32

Day 7: $.64

Day 8: $1.28

Day 9: $2.56

Day 10: $5.12

Day 11: $10.24

Day 12: $20.48

Day 13: $40.96

Day 14: $81.92

Day 15: $163.84

Day 16: $326.68

Day 17: $655.36

Day 18: $1,310.72

Day 19: $2,621.44

Day 20: $5,242.88

Day 21: $10,485.76

Day 22: $20,971.52

Day 23: $41,943.04

Day 24: $83,886.08

Day 25: $167,772.16

Day 26: $335,544.32

Day 27: $671,088.64

Day 28: $1,342,177.28

Day 29: $2,684,354.56

Day 30: $5,368,709.12

Now imagine a penny represents a case of COVID-19 and tell me social distancing is an over-reaction.”

Thanking Asher for the simple lesson, I’d like to expand it using the state of Maryland as an example. Maryland’s official population is 6,043,000. In the fall of 2010, 369,320 students were enrolled in 55 Maryland colleges and universities. In the fall of 2019, there were an estimated 871,360 students in public schools, grades K-12. In those concentrations, it doesn’t require a high IQ to figure out that if you want to slow the expansion of a contagious disease like COVID-19, you shut down the schools, colleges, and universities where large numbers of people are clustered as well as the gatherings of 250 people or more.

Why do we want to slow the spread of COVID-19? A simple New York Times chart has been circulating in the past few days. In this chart, the expansion of cases is compared to a flat line of healthcare capacity. Continuing to use Maryland as an example, there are 9,555 acute care hospital beds in Maryland serving its population of 6 million people. If Governor Hogan had not taken any action to reduce social interaction, you can see how quickly the hospital beds would be filled beyond capacity.

One example of an area that did not move to flatten the curve is Northern Italy. In this recent NY Times article, the consequences of allowing the number of cases to spike is an example of what can happen when a disease is unchecked. Hospitals are overwhelmed. Physicians are making choices of which patients they’ll try to save by moving them into an intensive care unit and which ones they will leave in a makeshift ward. Medical supplies are scarce due to a supply system that is not ready to provide so many patients with specific drugs and medical supplies.

Our university operates totally online with students studying from all 50 states and 130 countries, as well as faculty members teaching from all 50 states and several countries. Supporting that infrastructure requires staff who are clustered in West Virginia and Virginia. We are in the process of evaluating the timing to require all non-essential staff to work from home for a period of time, reducing the numbers in our West Virginia and Virginia locations and contributing to flattening the coronavirus curve.

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Wally Boston Dr. Wallace E. Boston was appointed President and Chief Executive Officer of American Public University System (APUS) and its parent company, American Public Education, Inc. (APEI) in July 2004. He joined APUS as its Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer in 2002. In July 2016, he retired as APUS president and continued as CEO of APEI. In September 2017, he was reappointed APUS president after the resignation of Dr. Karan Powell. In September 2019, Angela Selden was named CEO of APEI, succeeding Dr. Boston who will remain APUS president until his planned retirement in June 2020. Dr. Boston guided APUS through its successful initial accreditation with the Higher Learning Commission of the North Central Association in 2006 and ten-year reaccreditation in 2011. In November 2007, he led APEI to an initial public offering on the NASDAQ Exchange. During his tenure, APUS grew to over 100,000 students, 200 degree and certificate programs, and approximately 90,000 alumni. In addition to his service as a board member of APUS and APEI, Dr. Boston is a member of the Board of Advisors of the National Institute for Learning Outcomes Assessment (NILOA), a member of the Board of Overseers of the University of Pennsylvania’s Graduate School of Education, a board member of the Presidents’ Forum, and a board member of Hondros College of Nursing and Fidelis, Inc. He has authored and co-authored papers on the topic of online post-secondary student retention, and is a frequent speaker on the impact of technology on higher education. Dr. Boston is a past Treasurer of the Board of Trustees of the McDonogh School, a private K-12 school in Baltimore. In his career prior to APEI and APUS, Dr. Boston served as either CFO, COO, or CEO of Meridian Healthcare, Manor Healthcare, Neighborcare Pharmacies, and Sun Healthcare Group. Dr. Boston is a Certified Public Accountant, Certified Management Accountant, and Chartered Global Management Accountant. He earned an A.B. degree in History from Duke University, an MBA in Marketing and Accounting from Tulane University’s Freeman School of Business Administration, and a Doctorate in Higher Education Management from the University of Pennsylvania’s Graduate School of Education. In 2008, the Board of Trustees of APUS awarded him a Doctorate in Business Administration, honoris causa, and, in April 2017, also bestowed him with the title President Emeritus. Dr. Boston lives in Owings Mills, MD with his wife Sharon and their two daughters.

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