Last night I watched CNN and FoxNews for a while.  Both shows had panelists discussing the recent incident with the Nigerian terrorist on the Northwest/Delta flight to Detroit from Amsterdam.  Panelists discussed the fact that the terrorist’s father reported his concerns about his son’s radical activities to officials from Yemen, the U.S. embassy in Abuja, and the Central Intelligence Agency and yet, he did not land on a “do not fly” list.  I did not watch either of the shows to the end, primarily because the participants became engaged in partisan bickering that destroyed the sensibility of listening to both sides of the debate.  The failure of the intelligence agencies to engage in coordinated reporting for this incident led to the heated, partisan discussion.  Naturally, the discussion disintegrated when Republican participants stated that government workers are not disposed to working processes to perfection and that the same can be expected of the administration’s initiatives in healthcare and the cap and trade bill.  Panelists representing the administration and/or the Democrats resorted to blaming George Bush for the failure of the Department of Homeland Security and the moderators seemed to relish in the chaos rather than trying to rein in the discussion.

I was never a student of public policy, but because of its impact to my employer and myself, I have to be more than a bystander.  From my observations, it appears that healing and conciliation are no more than campaign promises from politicians on both sides of the aisle.  The breakdown appears to be more severe on a national level than a state and local government level, but that might be caused by the fact that state and local governments are required to balance their fiscal budgets and the federal government is the only entity allowed to print money to pay its bills.

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An August 11th article in The New York Times caught my attention.  Written by Tamar Lewin, the article describes a policy brief released by the College Board which concludes that for the most part, recent graduates are carrying “manageable” debt loads.  Using data published in the Department of Education’s National Postsecondary Student Aid Study, the policy brief notes that while the number of students using loans to pay for their post-secondary educations has increased in the last five years, the volume of students who carry overly burdensome levels of debt upon graduation remains small in comparison.

According to the policy brief, of the students who earned a degree or certificate program during the 2007-2008 academic year, some 41 percent graduated with no debt whatsoever.  Those students borrowing more than $40,000 to pay for their educations represented only six percent of total student borrowing.  Students borrowing money to pay for a certificate program carried substantially less debt overall than those borrowing money to pay for an associate or bachelors degree.  A meager one percent of those borrowing money for a certificate program found themselves $40,000 or more in debt upon graduation while ten percent of those borrowing to complete a bachelors degree carried that level of debt or more upon graduation.  The above statistics found in the College Board’s policy brief are logical when one considers the number of credits required to complete each of the three degree types compared above.  What’s not logical is the $40,000 threshold selected to evaluate reasonable debt loads.  Obtaining a $40,000 loan for a certificate program is almost certain to lead to a negative ROI unless the certificate is related to technical training in an extremely high paying profession.  Even then, it is a risky venture.  While borrowing $40,000 for a four year degree sounds better, it may not be relative to the average loan balance of graduating students.  The College Board briefing does not take into account the students who borrow money to attend college who don’t graduate at all, or the students who attend college until their money runs out.  Using limited outcomes with a broad brush to stimulate policy discussions can be misleading.  With approximately half of college freshmen graduating in six years, we shouldn’t ignore the half that don’t finish.

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As the data flow continues from the published articles about the economic crisis and its impact on colleges and universities, it strikes me that the writers may be confusing facts of the economic crisis with changes inside the industry itself.  It is true that public universities are under pressure from state budgets that are buckling under the weight of reduced tax revenues.  It is true that private institutions are concerned that their tuitions are too high for families concerned about the job of one or both parents.  It is also true that online institutions are growing their enrollments at rates that none of the traditional college sectors have seen since the late 1940’s and early 1950’s.  Is there a linkage?

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